The Potato Paradox: A Perplexing Puzzle of Proportional Perspective

Uncovering the surprising truth about potatoes

Picture this: You’re at a fancy dinner party full of fancy people and fancy food—especially the delectable po-tay-toes—when Frank brings up the “potato paradox.”

You pause, a forkful of mashed deliciousness hovering in front of your face, and wonder: “What the heck could be paradoxical about potatoes?”

Well, it’s pretty simple.

Imagine you have 100 lbs of potatoes that are 99% water. (They are really juicy spuds.) Frank leaves the tubers overnight in the dry desert heat, and we wake up to find the potatoes are now only 98% water.

How much do they weigh? Can you guess the answer?

Chew on that for a moment while we explore something a bit more economical—but related.

Perspective and Proportions

Let’s talk about wheat and a**holes for a moment.

My friend runs a chain of pizza shops here in Asia — and yes, he puts pineapple on them — where his three main unique value propositions are:

1. Uniqueness — It’s pizza in Asia, after all

2. Convenience — People can order pizza by the slice all around town

3. Price — Up until recently, the price had remained the same for years; very cheap

But why did he have to raise the price of his particular pizza?

Because of a big dirty a**hole in Russia.

If you don’t live under a rock, you’re probably aware of the unjustified invasion of Ukraine last year. Previously, some of this country’s main exports were corn and wheat, supplying neighboring countries with vast amounts of cereals.

That’s one of the ostensible reasons their flag—a blue bar over a yellow one—looks like this:

Photo by Adam Śmigielski on Unsplash

A perfect homage to what looks like this:

Photo by Ihor OINUA on Unsplash

Now wheat is a responsible grain. Not only do you eat it for breakfast every morning—assuming you’re a very capable livestock animal able to read this — but it’s also present in:

• breads

• cereals

• biscuits

• cakes

• pasta

• puddings

• hair products

• skincare

• cleaning agents

• renewable fuels

• flour

And it’s the last point that stands out for my pizza-making friend.

Even though we’re way over here in Taiwan, his customers now have to pay 20% more for their thinly sliced piece of heaven. Otherwise, my friend would be losing money.

Why’s that?

Well, partly, because Ukraine produced roughly 10% of the world’s wheat supply. Add that with Russia’s output, and you had around 25%. Now add in a bunch of obvious reasons for a massive reduction in those specific exports, and you have yourselves a supply shock.

That looks like this:

IFC Markets

And while wheat output declined 28% in Ukraine since before the war, Russia has managed to increase its exports 15% due to a bumper crop… and stuff.

But not all wheat is created equal, as Russia “will only be supplying food and agriculture products to our friends,” according to former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.

So, with fewer friendly wheat being exported, and sanctions and rebuttals from non-friendly wheat making up for only some of the shock, we get 20% more expensive pizza in my town in Taiwan.

And assumably — 20% more expensive breads, cereals, biscuits, cakes, pasta, puddings, hair products, skin care, cleaning agents, and renewable fuel.

If you’re still with me, you might find yourself wondering what the heck all this has to do with po-tay-toes.

What, did you think I forgot?

It’s All About Perspective

Let’s jump back in.

Frank brings home a 100 lb juicy potato, which consists of 99% water. He then leaves it outside overnight so it consists of 98% water. What is the entire potato’s new weight?

The surprising answer is 50 lbs.

Wait, what?

Consider this: The potato weighs 100 lbs — 99 lbs of water (99%) + 1 lb of solid potato (1%). Now we have to get to 98% water, so the natural response is to just subtract either 1% or 1 lb of water and voilà, right?

Nope, the kicker is we have to flip the math around.

We still have the same 1 lb of solid potato, which on day 2, is now 2% of the entire mass (100% - 98%).

And if the potato is now 2% of the entire weight, which is double the previous 1%, the remaining water weight has to be halved!

Before:

1 giant juicy potato = 99% water + 1% potato = 99 lb water + 1 lb potato

After:

1 giant slightly-less-juicy potato = 98% water + 1% potato = 49 lb water + 1 lb potato

If that’s still a bit confusing, perhaps this chart will help:

100 lb potato on the left, 50 lbs on the right. By Cmglee, CC 3.0

Interesting result, right?

With only a 1% change in one part of the formula (the percent of water), we end up with a massive 50% change in the other (the total percent in weight).

The potato paradox and the wheat shortfall in Ukraine, though seemingly unrelated, offer a valuable lesson about the power of small changes and the importance of perspective.

Both situations demonstrate how seemingly minor shifts can lead to significant consequences, highlighting the interconnectedness of our world and the ripple effects of events we may not immediately recognize.

With potatoes, it’s the curious case of how just a little change in percentage of water can result in massive changes in substantive weight. With wheat, it’s how a really dirty a**hole in Russia can cause my buddy’s customers to have to pay more for their delicious pizza.

But it’s not just potatoes and a**holes this affects.

Think about all the other possibilities:

• Rent: “A $100 increase in median rent is associated with a 9% increase in the estimated homelessness rate.”

• Homes: A swathe of market-crashed cheap housing in 2008 means 40% of single-family homes will be owned by corporations in 2030.

• Food: A few years of price increases mean up to 60 million Americans are food insecure.

• Inflation: Kroger’s profit went up 35.6% in 2022, while food prices inflated 11.3%.

• Wealth: “A billionaire gained roughly $1.7 million for every $1 of new global wealth earned by a person in the bottom 90 percent.”

In some ways, I’m starting to see another perspective.

Take away $10 from a poor person, and they can’t eat that day. Take away $10 from Elon Musk, and we’ll get three more tweets about how he’s being treated unfairly, libtards are nuts, and something about how Joe Biden is an alien from Mars and Elon’s going to personally travel there to find out.

For the wealthy, $10 is invisible.

For the impoverished, it can mean life or death.

But then again, maybe we’re all just water floating in a bunch of rich people’s juicy potato meat—their wealth never seems to change negatively, but ours can get halved overnight.

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Written by a broke angry pizza lover named J.J. Pryor.

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